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Farmers, ranchers to have new tool to help deal with drought
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By The Associated Press
| 06/04/2007 |
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BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) -- A computer program to help ranchers hit by drought is expected to be ready later this year, after nearly three decades in the making.
The Drought Management Calculator, the brainchild of a longtime rangeland management specialist from Texas, is to help determine ideal herd sizes and feed amounts based on a farmer's weather and livestock data.
"It's really designed for the rancher to sit at home and run a bunch of different options," said Jeff Printz, a rangeland management specialist for the National Resources Conservation Service office in Bismarck. "They really wanted to make it rancher-friendly, where the terms on it mean something to the rancher, not the agency designing it. With a minimal amount of entries, the rancher can get something out of it."
The program, which will be available at no cost when it's released in August or September, relies just as much on its users as it does up-to-date data from the Web. It asks ranchers to enter such information as quantity, weight and classifications of animals, and accurate precipitation figures.
The Drought Management Calculator compares that data to what is normal for the area to determine carrying capacity, or how many animals a rancher could be expected to handle. In drought years, the calculator will suggest how many of each animal class should be sold, according to the rancher's preference.
It's the creation of Texas rangeland management specialist Arnold Norman, who's spent three decades with the NRCS.
"In that time, he's dealt a lot with drought, and has always had this in the back of his mind," Printz said. "It's just being developed now. He started in January 2006 pulling this model together."
Norman and co-developer Gale Dunn presented their Drought Management Calculator at three meetings last month in Mandan, Medora and Mobridge, S.D.
The program works as a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, Printz said. It will be available to ranchers on CD or as a download from the NRCS and ARS Web sites.
Lynn Deibert, who has ranched in the Herreid, S.D., area for 30 years, ran a test of the calculator at a forum last month. Based on the rainfall amounts and his herd information, the drought calculator recommended running about half as many cows as normal. That suggestion did bear out in real life: Deibert is down to 110 animals this year from 200.
The calculator looks at the current market price and shows ranchers how much money they would make if they sold a certain number of animals that day. If they thought they might like to sell at a later date, the program can look at the futures market.
It also can calculate how much it will cost to feed the current or projected herd size.
After the final report comes out, the calculator allows the user to enter several "what-if" scenarios.
"It's got some merit," Deibert said. "If we'd have had a normal year last year, I would have said it doesn't pay to bother with anything. But coming off this severe drought, I'm kind of excited to use it. Once they get it done, we can plug our numbers into the front, get something out of the back and see how close we are."
Copies of the calculator will be available at NRCS offices, and through the Agricultural Research Service.
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